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Calculating LTV of $80 for my AI side project

Controversial opinion: LTV isn't hard to assess for a young business with mostly new customers.

The LTV calculation is the same for any business: how much money you got, divided by the number of customers.

Speculation about how much they'll buy in future... whether one-timers or churnable subs... is outta scope. I'll chase that revenue but its chickens ain't hatched yet.

My project has earned about AU$6500 in the last 30d, after a year and a bit in business. So I decided to calculate some LTV rudimentary numbers. I'm using the 30d window here.

Revenue: $6470
New customers: 80
Emails collected: 576

My LTV of a paying customer is now:
$6470 / 80 = $80.10

The LTV of an email address signup (list or purchase) was surprisingly high:
$6470 / 576 = $11.20

My conclusions:

  • I should gently chase email address collection. Gotta be gentle or I'll tank the correlation. I deployed a signup modal just now, hopefully that'll do it.
  • $80 LTV isn't enough to scale paid acquisition, I've learned. The number should be more like 150 to 200. Gotta work on that by making it easier and better to order again.

The product, in case you're wondering, is a personalized picture-book about art history: Selfarama.com. Sorta niche, sorta not ;)

on May 7, 2024