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12 Comments

I'm validating 5 ideas with a free vote before I build any of them — here's the method

The pattern I'm trying to break: pick an idea that feels clever, build for two weekends, realize nobody wants it, abandon. Repeat 6x in 12 months.

This time I'm validating first. I have 5 ideas for dev tools built on the AI-skills marketplaces: Claude Skills, MCP servers, opencode, Cursor, etc. Instead of picking my favorite and building, I put all 5 on one landing page with:

  • A vote (which would you actually pay for?)
  • A price ladder ($0 / $5 / $10 / $20 / $50)

The 5 ideas:

  1. Skills-as-Legos engine — recomposes existing AI skills into novel product concepts nobody's combined.
  2. Marketplace crawler + recommendation API — "compose these 7 existing skills instead of building from scratch."
  3. 5-minute pretotype generator — idea → deployed landing page + fake door + smoke-test ad in 5 minutes.
  4. Idea-to-validation pipeline (skill pack) — install, run discover my-idea, get a go/kill/iterate verdict.
  5. Side project radar — weekly digest of underserved niches scored by competition density × effort-to-MVP.

Methodology (in case it's useful to anyone here):

  • Success threshold: ≥10% survey conversion on 500 visitors + a clear top 1-2 ideas with ≥40% of votes.
  • Price ladder tests willingness-to-pay depth, not just interest.
  • Per-idea vote distribution tells me which to build first — or whether to build at all.
  • Kill criteria are pre-registered: <10% conversion → treat as personal-tool niche, stop pursuing "sell to others."

Page + survey: Page + survey: https://validate.danielcardosods.me

I'll post results back here in ~2 weeks — build decision, winning idea, or kill. Happy to discuss the validation approach in the comments.

on July 10, 2026
  1. 1

    The method’s solid, but be careful using “favorite idea” as the main signal, people will upvote what’s interesting, but they only pay for something that actually hurts. I’d tweak the page a bit: first ask “which one would you pay for this week?” before asking which is most interesting, then throw in a forced trade‑off like “Would you rather get this as a $10 template, a $49 tool, or a $99 done‑with‑you workflow?” and finally split voters by what they’re already doing – folks already using AI skills or MCPs versus just curious – because those are totally different markets. To me the 5‑minute pretotype generator is the strongest card; the pain is immediate (stop wasting weekends), so I’d make that the benchmark any other idea has to beat.

  2. 1

    Pre-registering your kill criteria before you look at the numbers is the part most people skip, and it's the part that actually matters. It's way too easy to see 8% conversion and convince yourself that's fine once you're already attached to an idea. Curious how you're handling it if two ideas both clear 40%, do you build both or force yourself to pick one?

  3. 1

    The vote-first pattern saved us from the same build-then-abandon loop — one thing I'd add from having just run one: decide in advance what happens if you act before the vote formally closes. We launched early for timing reasons and had to publicly commit to honoring the final tally if it flipped. That commitment turned out to matter more than the vote itself — it becomes your credibility with the exact early adopters you're trying to recruit.

    Second thing: our vote predicted attention, not payment. The winning option got the engagement, but the actual money came from two people, and both paid after a direct exchange, not after voting. So I'd treat the price-ladder answers as a ranking signal between your 5, not as a revenue forecast — the $0-vs-$5 line is the only one people answer with their real self.

    1. 1

      Thank you for sharing the actual numbers from your experience.

      The point about deciding what happens if you act before the vote closes is something I hadn't considered at all, but this whole validate and launch is a new experiment to me and I have other commitments, so I'll probably wait the full ~2 weeks anyways.

      And your price-ladder insight is great. I'll treat the dollar amounts as a ranking signal between ideas.

      One bit of context in case it helps anyone reading: the original plan was a $1 Stripe pre-auth to filter for real intent, but I don't have a business registration yet (which is required where I'm based). I went with the free vote + email to get the experiment running, knowing it's a weaker signal. I'll change the page/survey to emphasize the email collection.

  4. 1

    I took the opposite path this year and it changed how I think about votes. I ship small data tools in a category where building one costs a weekend, so instead of validating first I launched dozens and let paying usage do the voting. The winners were consistently not the ones I would have picked in a poll, and not the ones friends were excited about. The boring niche ones sitting next to an expensive incumbent quietly outperformed the exciting ones. So my suggestion on your method: if any of the five can be built small in a weekend or two, a real launch with a kill date is the cleanest vote there is, because a vote costs the voter nothing and a signup costs them thirty seconds of belief. Your pre registered kill criteria is the part most people skip, so real respect for that. Curious which of the five you personally want to win, and whether you would still build it if it comes fourth.

    1. 1

      You're making me think hard about whether some of these 5 are cheap enough that a real launch beats a poll. The pretotype generator (#3) and the skill pack (#4) are both weekend-buildable. If the vote data is ambiguous on those two, I might just build thin versions and let real signups decide instead of agonizing over poll numbers. Going to add that as an explicit fallback branch in the plan.

      To your question: if I'm being honest, the one I personally most want to build is the pretotype generator (#3) — it solves my own pain first. But if it comes fourth in votes, I'll build whatever comes first. I published the kill criteria to force myself to listen to the data, not my gut. Ask me again in 2 weeks and I'll tell you whether I actually honored that.

  5. 1

    love this in principle, one thing i'd watch: a vote tells you what sounds appealing, not what people will pay for. "yeah i'd use that" is cheap. the strongest validation i've seen is asking people to do something that costs them a little - join a waitlist with their real email, pre-order, reply to a cold email about it. if they'll spend 30 seconds or $5 that's a real signal, a free click is a weak one. what are you actually asking them to do?

    1. 1

      Fair question. The original plan was a $1 Stripe pre-auth but it requires a business account here, which I don't have yet. I went with the free vote as plan B to get the experiment running. btw, do you recommend other providers that work without a business requirement?

      Yeah, email collection not as good as a pre-order, but better than a click. I'll improve on that. Appreciate the push.

  6. 1

    Pre-registering your kill criteria before you see the results is the part that actually makes this work. Most founders set their thresholds after the data comes in, which means they'll always find a way to interpret borderline results as a green light. Your 10% on 500 visitors is tight enough to be honest. One thing to watch: 500 warm-network visitors and 500 cold traffic visitors will give you completely different signals on the same idea. I made that mistake with Genie 007 early on. Sent the validation to people I knew, got inflated numbers, didn't realise until 3 months later when cold conversion told a different story. What's your traffic source plan for hitting those 500?

  7. 1

    One thing I'd be careful of is optimizing for the most popular idea instead of the strongest problem.

    People can accurately tell you which concept sounds exciting. They're much less reliable at predicting which one they'll consistently pay to solve. If the votes and the willingness-to-pay signals diverge, I'd trust the money over the popularity.

  8. 1

    honestly more rigorous than most validation posts, the pre-registered kill criteria especially. one thing i'd still watch: a price-ladder click is stated willingness to pay, and stated WTP basically always reads higher than revealed. the number that's actually predictive is someone hitting a real pay-$X button, even a fake-door that just 500s at checkout tells you more than a vote. also where your 500 visitors come from will skew it a lot, HN and a niche discord will pick completely different winners. curious to see the results in 2 weeks.