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Reading my own numbers

I spent the weekend reading my own traction numbers instead of writing code, and they were worse than I had let myself believe.

The product is basically done. The retry engine works, the Stripe app is live, the dashboard is built. I had been treating that as progress. Then I actually looked at the demand side: 0 customers, a waitlist of basically one real signup, and 164 cold emails that produced a single reply.

The cold emails stung the most, because those leads were my strongest bet. Seeing a single reply across all of them was a real gut-punch, and once I saw that I couldn't look away from the broader patterns. The open rate had been quietly fooling me too: Around 60% "opened," which I had been reading as genuine interest, but a high open rate on a tracked email is mostly Apple Mail preloading the email, not a person reading. The really valuable metrics point to zero clicks and a single reply. Big numbers are an ego boost, and it turned out I had been chasing the wrong horse.

Here is what I think I got wrong: I built first and assumed demand would follow. It does not. A finished product nobody knows about, sold by a one-person company just starting out, asking you to connect your live Stripe account on first contact is a lot of trust to ask for before you have given anything.

So I am changing the order of work:

  • Stop building & start selling: It is so easy to get lost in your own systems, especially coming from a dev background. The job now is interacting with people, not machines.

  • Talk to people first: Offer to look at someone's failed payments by hand before asking them to install/approve anything.

  • Narrow who I reach out to, and measure replies and convos instead of posts and opens.

Taking a step back to question your own beliefs is a serious ego killer, but like eating your veggies, it is a healthy one.

I am also killing the countdown timer on the site. RecoverStack is now open to work with design partners (the founding cohort), but the hard launch happens when it is earned, not on a date I made up.

If you run a Stripe SaaS and have ever watched a renewal quietly fail, I would genuinely like to hear how you handle it.

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